Review of 2024 Spot Premiums/Discounts for Copper Cathode in North China: A Cliff-Like Decline at Year-End [SMM Analysis]

Published: Dec 27, 2024 17:35

Save

[SMM Analysis: Review of 2024 Spot Premiums/Discounts for Copper Cathode in North China, Year-End Plunged Sharply] According to SMM prices, as of December 27, 2024, the monthly average spot discount for SMM #1 copper cathode in North China in December 2024 was 88 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt MoM from the November average discount of 68 yuan/mt...

SMM, December 27:

According to SMM prices, as of December 27, 2024, the monthly average spot premiums/discounts for SMM #1 copper cathode in north China in December 2024 stood at a discount of 88 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt MoM from November's average discount of 68 yuan/mt. The annual average spot premiums/discounts for SMM #1 copper cathode in north China in 2024 recorded a discount of 179 yuan/mt, down 117 yuan/mt YoY from 2023's discount of 62 yuan/mt.

The spot premiums/discounts in north China weakened MoM in December, mainly due to seasonal consumption weakness in the north as year-end approached. Additionally, downstream sectors faced funding constraints, especially in the final trading days, when upstream producers began to clear inventory by lowering prices, causing spot premiums/discounts to drop below a discount of 300 yuan/mt at one point.

For the full year of 2024, as the demand in the north China market showed a high correlation with copper prices, spot premiums/discounts were sluggish in H1 2024, primarily due to a surge in copper prices that significantly suppressed consumption. The lowest monthly average discount of the year, 580 yuan/mt, was recorded in late May. With the rapid pullback in copper prices in H2, demand was significantly boosted as downstream enterprises rushed to meet annual targets. Additionally, in Q3, major smelters in north China underwent maintenance, reducing production and tightening supply, which drove up spot premiums/discounts. By early September, the monthly average spot premiums/discounts reached a high of a premium of 50 yuan/mt.

As 2025 approaches, construction projects in the north are expected to be affected by winter weather, and downstream sectors will gradually halt operations before the Chinese New Year, leading to overall weak market demand. Meanwhile, the annual long-term contract negotiation period for copper cathode in the north China market is later than in other regions, with 2025 long-term contract pricing set to begin after the Chinese New Year. However, judging from this year's average spot premiums/discounts, the outlook for 2025 long-term contracts remains pessimistic.

》Subscribe to view historical SMM metal spot prices

》Click to access the SMM copper industry chain database

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or to learn more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

12 hours ago

"Premier Li Qiang Leads State Council Meeting on Enhancing Effective Investment, Boosting Economic Growth"

Premier Li Qiang presided over an executive meeting of the State Council to study policy measures for promoting effective investment. The meeting noted that promoting effective investment plays an important role in stabilizing economic growth and strengthening momentum for development. It is necessary to innovate and improve policy measures, and intensify efforts to enhance the efficiency of utilizing funds such as central budget investments, ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, local government special bonds, and new-type policy-based financial instruments. In conjunction with formulating and implementing the 15th Five-Year Plan

12 hours ago

"Guided by Xi Jinping Thought, Implement 20th CPC Congress Spirit, Apply New Development Philosophy...

Guided by Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, we will thoroughly implement the spirit of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China and the plenary sessions of the Party’s 20th Central Committee, fully and faithfully apply the new development philosophy, strengthen top-level design, build computing power interconnection nodes oriented toward national hub periods, major strategic regions, and key industries, establish a system of computing power interconnection nodes, improve the efficiency and service level of public computing power resources, and promote high-quality development of computing power.

12 hours ago

Indirect Iran-US Nuclear Talks in Muscat Show Progress, Omani FM Mediates Tense but Efficient Discussions

After intensive indirect consultations, the new round of nuclear talks between Iran and the US in Muscat, the capital of Oman, has achieved phased progress. It is reported that during this round of talks, the Iranian and US delegations did not meet directly. Instead, Omani Foreign Minister Badr acted as an intermediary, conveying a series of core proposals, strategic concerns, and policy positions to the other side. The atmosphere at the talks was tense yet efficient. According to preliminary on-site assessments, although both sides continue to negotiate over specific terms, they have reached a consensus on the key objective of "continuing dialogue."

12 hours ago